![]() 4 Rather than “characteristics, capabilities, or locations,” centers of gravity can be “dynamic and powerful physical and moral agents of action or influence.” 5 Even though some question the idea of a center of gravity, the concept retains its relevance for many contemporary planners as it helps them understand the complexities of the security environment and the relationships between systems, as well as prioritize efforts. ![]() The NATO Glossary defines a center of gravity as the “characteristics, capabilities, or localities from which a nation, an alliance, a military force, or other grouping derives its freedom of action, physical strength or will to fight.” 3 This Clausewitzian metaphor refers to a “focal point” as “the source of power that provides moral or physical strength, freedom of action, or will to act” for the group. Underlying Conceptual DefinitionsĪs with many research projects, this study began with an exploration of conceptual definitions. It is an exploration of the realm of the possible and acts as a solemn warning to leaders of the many possible ways the Atlantic alliance could fracture in the future. It provides a model grounded in data to help readers understand and visualize the aspects of cohesion. 2 This article summarizes the project’s analysis of factors that could affect Alliance cohesion in the future. In the spring through the summer of 2017, the authors of this article conducted in-depth research into the factors that contribute to or detract from Alliance cohesion pursuant to the development of the document The Framework for Future Alliance Operations. If one makes the assertion that cohesion is a center of gravity of NATO, then it becomes essential to identify the types of variables that affect the strength of this center of gravity. Between these two extremes lie varying degrees of cohesion, and, as such, directly proportional degrees of effectiveness, efficiency, and synergy. 1 Conversely, if the members do not have a common understanding, an alliance does not exist. Whether one agrees with Carl von Clausewitz’s supposition that the center of gravity of any alliance is “unity formed by common interests” or not, no one can deny that if the members are of one mind, an alliance exists. Arguably, it is one of the most successful alliances in human history, but without cohesion, NATO can and will fail. In fact, if the complex and adaptive security environment continues to evolve on its present course, it will become increasingly difficult to maintain cohesion of the Alliance. Although these measures of past performance indicate that NATO could continue to succeed in the future, there are no guarantees. ![]() The Alliance’s many credits include acting as a major factor in deterrence of nuclear war, contributing to the erosion of the communist ideology of the Soviet Union, and projecting stability in difficult places such as Bosnia, Kosovo, and Afghanistan. They are determined to safeguard the freedom, common heritage, and civilization of their peoples, founded on the principles of democracy, individual liberty and the rule of law.įor almost seventy years, NATO has positively influenced the world. In states with many factions vying for power, the center of gravity lies mainly in the capital in small states supported by a more powerful one, it lies in the army of the stronger state in alliances, it lies in the unity formed by common interests in popular uprisings, it lies in the persons of the principal leaders and in public opinion. Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis ( third from right) and NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg ( fourth from right) walk to a meeting 27 September 2017 with deployed forces in Afghanistan. ![]()
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